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Showing posts with the label probability

Just my thoughts #0500

In an exchange economy, where goods or services are well-made and exchanged for one another’s needs in the market, rather than through barter, ‘price’ holds significant importance. The key to business success lies in understanding the prime cost and establishing a ‘price’ based on that cost. If sales surge when a product that typically does not sell well is offered at a very low price, there must be a reason for the low price, as well as an explanation for why it does not sell at a higher price. The price results from the interaction of producers, consumers, and all other market variables. To identify the causes of problems in your business, you must first examine the price adequacy of the product or service you are selling. Price is not merely a number. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”

Just my thoughts #0374

Even if I have too many human relationships, many of them are not directly connected to me. Therefore, many people believe that they only need a few good companions by their side. In other words, human relationships also involve probability. This thought presents a problem, too, because the choice of who qualifies as “good people” and the ability to strengthen those relationships isn’t entirely in my hands. Most of the time, the reason I can’t escape all the conflicts and hardships is that I can’t take control of my life independently. Thus, we are very fragile creatures. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”

Just my thoughts #0278

The social scientist’s method of confirming the facts is first to verify the beta error (Type II error) and then the alpha error (Type I error) before accepting the hypothesis as true. In other words, if the probability is less than 5% after focusing on the likelihood of accepting a false hypothesis as true (Type II error), then we risk rejecting a true hypothesis (Type I error) as false. It’s a conservative position that new information will be accepted only when the probability of being wrong is very small. This verification method is helpful if you don’t want to be swayed by conspiracy theories. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”

Just my thoughts #0123

On the highway, I saw a warning saying “Half of the death accidents were not wearing seat belts”. This means, “Even if you wear a seat belt, half die.” “Safety” is emphasized by saying “50% reduction in mortality when wearing seat belts”. In the former, 'probability' was noted, and in the latter, the effect of 'reduction' was emphasized. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”

Just my thoughts #0014

Japanese actor and filmmaker Takeshi Kitano said this about Effort. "Effort is like a lottery ticket. If you buy it, you might win, but if you don't buy it, you'll never win." Effort is not about maximizing your probability of success; it's a behavior that ensures a minimum probability of success. There's certainly no guarantee that you'll succeed, but if you don't put in the effort, you'll miss out on the opportunities that come with that minimum probability. Probability always brings doubt about the outcome of our efforts and creates conflict in continuing our challenges and actions. However, the world of probability is the realm of God, where human effort cannot intervene, so we should not attach value to the outcome of our efforts, even if the outcome is success or failure. Therefore, nothing is meaningful disappointment or attachment for us, and we can only be slightly happy if our attitude toward the outcome is value-neutral. Even in the worl...