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Showing posts with the label probability

Just my thoughts #0530

To receive investment or borrow money is to use the “future” in advance. We should be cautious about using the “future” ahead of the present. The way to determine whether a transaction is favorable or unfavorable is to assess whether the time associated with it is beneficial or hostile to you. Time affects both the weak and the strong equally. This fairness is daunting. It embodies the fear that there are no exceptions to this principle. If the amount of sand (time) in both hourglasses is the same and the gravitational pull is equal, but the amount of sand falling is different, the outcome is significantly different. The fairness of time causes those who live in the future rather than the present to consume irretrievable value. The poor either do not recognize or overlook the fact that increases or decreases in wealth inevitably discriminate against those who live simultaneously. There is nothing more foolish than moving forward in time knowingly. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”

Just my thoughts #0527

Let’s say you have two options. If you press the blue button, you will receive 1 million USD, and if you press the red button, you will receive 10 million USD, but the probability of winning is 50%. Which button would you press? If pressing the blue button is business, pressing the red button is gambling. In other words, depending on your attitude toward the relationship between risk and reward, we can determine whether we are suitable as managers. But if you press the red button with a 50% chance of winning and you don’t win, and you have to pay a fine of 1 million USD, would you still press the red button? The relationship between risk and reward influences people’s behavior. Business is about creating a structure that is advantageous to me, and building a system in which the structure continues to benefit me is called management. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”

Just my thoughts #0517

To prevent the boat from overturning when a large wave approaches, the bow should face the front of the wave. If you confront a big wave from the side, there is a high probability that the boat will capsize. Navigating life’s crises is akin to a ship facing the waves. One should confront them rather than dodge or avoid. Of course, even the ship’s direction is ineffective when dealing with waves that are too large. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”

Just my thoughts #0374

Even if I have too many human relationships, many of them are not directly connected to me. Therefore, many people believe that they only need a few good companions by their side. In other words, human relationships also involve probability. This thought presents a problem, too, because the choice of who qualifies as “good people” and the ability to strengthen those relationships isn’t entirely in my hands. Most of the time, the reason I can’t escape all the conflicts and hardships is that I can’t take control of my life independently. Thus, we are very fragile creatures. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”

Just my thoughts #0278

The social scientist’s method of confirming the facts is first to verify the beta error (Type II error) and then the alpha error (Type I error) before accepting the hypothesis as true. In other words, if the probability is less than 5% after focusing on the likelihood of accepting a false hypothesis as true (Type II error), then we risk rejecting a true hypothesis (Type I error) as false. It’s a conservative position that new information will be accepted only when the probability of being wrong is very small. This verification method is helpful if you don’t want to be swayed by conspiracy theories. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”

Just my thoughts #0123

On the highway, I saw a warning saying “Half of the death accidents were not wearing seat belts”. This means, “Even if you wear a seat belt, half die.” “Safety” is emphasized by saying “50% reduction in mortality when wearing seat belts”. In the former, 'probability' was noted, and in the latter, the effect of 'reduction' was emphasized. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”

Just my thoughts #0014

Japanese actor and filmmaker Takeshi Kitano said this about Effort. "Effort is like a lottery ticket. If you buy it, you might win, but if you don't buy it, you'll never win." Effort is not about maximizing your probability of success; it's a behavior that ensures a minimum probability of success. There's certainly no guarantee that you'll succeed, but if you don't put in the effort, you'll miss out on the opportunities that come with that minimum probability. Probability always brings doubt about the outcome of our efforts and creates conflict in continuing our challenges and actions. However, the world of probability is the realm of God, where human effort cannot intervene, so we should not attach value to the outcome of our efforts, even if the outcome is success or failure. Therefore, nothing is meaningful disappointment or attachment for us, and we can only be slightly happy if our attitude toward the outcome is value-neutral. Even in the worl...