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Just my thoughts #0300

The concept of “going concern” in accounting emphasizes that a business must persist into the future to retain its value. This principle signifies that present value already incorporates expectations of future value; thus, a business facing uncertainty about its future will inevitably diminish in present value. It highlights the interconnectedness of present and future values, suggesting that they cannot be regarded in isolation. All stocks traded on the stock market are priced based on their anticipated future value. In essence, we trade on a future that has yet to materialize. Consequently, determining how far into the future to evaluate is a critical factor in making investment decisions. Since individuals have varying skills and perspectives on forecasting the future, selecting an investment strategy must align with one’s attitude toward time. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”

Just my thoughts #0278

The social scientist’s method of confirming the facts is first to verify the beta error (Type II error) and then the alpha error (Type I error) before accepting the hypothesis as true. In other words, if the probability is less than 5% after focusing on the likelihood of accepting a false hypothesis as true (Type II error), then we risk rejecting a true hypothesis (Type I error) as false. It’s a conservative position that new information will be accepted only when the probability of being wrong is very small. This verification method is helpful if you don’t want to be swayed by conspiracy theories. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”

Just my thoughts #0123

On the highway, I saw a warning saying “Half of the death accidents were not wearing seat belts”. This means, “Even if you wear a seat belt, half die.” “Safety” is emphasized by saying “50% reduction in mortality when wearing seat belts”. In the former, 'probability' was noted, and in the latter, the effect of 'reduction' was emphasized. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”

Just my thoughts #0014

Japanese actor and filmmaker Takeshi Kitano said this about Effort. "Effort is like a lottery ticket. If you buy it, you might win, but if you don't buy it, you'll never win." Effort is not about maximizing your probability of success; it's a behavior that ensures a minimum probability of success. There's certainly no guarantee that you'll succeed, but if you don't put in the effort, you'll miss out on the opportunities that come with that minimum probability. Probability always brings doubt about the outcome of our efforts and creates conflict in continuing our challenges and actions. However, the world of probability is the realm of God, where human effort cannot intervene, so we should not attach value to the outcome of our efforts, even if the outcome is success or failure. Therefore, nothing is meaningful disappointment or attachment for us, and we can only be slightly happy if our attitude toward the outcome is value-neutral. Even in the worl...