Joseph's "Just My Thoughts"

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Showing posts with the label probability

Just my thoughts #0718

Investing means investing time, not people or assets. The object you invest in doesn’t generate money; time does. Failing to understand the role and principles of time in business and investment is a waste of energy. Because time is invisible, we often overlook it or fail to recognize its impact and role. This world is driven by probability . When dealing with probability, the first thing to consider is the invisible nature of time . Ignoring this fact leads to waste and inefficiency without us even realizing the damage. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”

Just my thoughts #0668

Some people hear that their business success rate is only 10%, so they try to avoid being part of the 90% who fail and put a lot of effort into becoming part of the 10% who succeed. In contrast, others allocate just 10% of their total effort to each of their 10 businesses, hoping that one will succeed. Since only one in ten founders succeeds, the latter approach is better because success in this world is a matter of probability . - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”

Just my thoughts #0527

Let’s say you have two options. If you press the blue button , you will receive 1 million USD, and if you press the red button , you will receive 10 million USD, but the probability of winning is 50%. Which button would you press? If pressing the blue button is business, pressing the red button is gambling. In other words, depending on your attitude toward the relationship between risk and reward , we can determine whether we are suitable as managers. But if you press the red button with a 50% chance of winning and you don’t win, and you have to pay a fine of 1 million USD, would you still press the red button? The relationship between risk and reward influences people’s behavior. Business is about creating a structure that is advantageous to me, and building a system in which the structure continues to benefit me is called management. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”

Just my thoughts #0517

To prevent the boat from overturning when a large wave approaches, the bow should face the front of the wave. If you confront a big wave from the side, there is a high probability that the boat will capsize . Navigating life’s crises is akin to a ship facing the waves. One should confront them rather than dodge or avoid. Of course, even the ship’s direction is ineffective when dealing with waves that are too large. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”

Just my thoughts #0374

Even if I have too many human relationships, many of them are not directly connected to me. Therefore, many people believe that they only need a few good companions by their side. In other words, human relationships also involve probability. This thought presents a problem, too, because the choice of who qualifies as “good people” and the ability to strengthen those relationships isn’t entirely in my hands. Most of the time, the reason I can’t escape all the conflicts and hardships is that I can’t take control of my life independently. Thus, we are very fragile creatures. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”

Just my thoughts #0278

The social scientist’s method of confirming the facts is first to verify the beta error (Type II error) and then the alpha error (Type I error) before accepting the hypothesis as true. In other words, if the probability is less than 5% after focusing on the likelihood of accepting a false hypothesis as true (Type II error), then we risk rejecting a true hypothesis (Type I error) as false. It’s a conservative position that new information will be accepted only when the probability of being wrong is very small. This verification method is helpful if you don’t want to be swayed by conspiracy theories. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”

Just my thoughts #0123

On the highway, I saw a warning saying “Half of the death accidents were not wearing seat belts”. This means, “Even if you wear a seat belt, half die.” “Safety” is emphasized by saying “50% reduction in mortality when wearing seat belts”. In the former, 'probability' was noted, and in the latter, the effect of 'reduction' was emphasized. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”

Just my thoughts #0014

Japanese actor and filmmaker Takeshi Kitano said this about Effort. "Effort is like a lottery ticket. If you buy it, you might win, but if you don't buy it, you'll never win." Effort is not about maximizing your probability of success; it's a behavior that ensures a minimum probability of success. There's certainly no guarantee that you'll succeed, but if you don't put in the effort, you'll miss out on the opportunities that come with that minimum probability. Probability always brings doubt about the outcome of our efforts and creates conflict in continuing our challenges and actions. However, the world of probability is the realm of God, where human effort cannot intervene, so we should not attach value to the outcome of our efforts, even if the outcome is success or failure. Therefore, nothing is meaningful disappointment or attachment for us, and we can only be slightly happy if our attitude toward the outcome is value-neutral. Even in the worl...