Walt Disney gained worldwide fame with the animated film ‘Steamboat Willie,’ but Disney’s first studio went bankrupt. By the mid-1930s, he had produced over 400 animations, most of which suffered heavy losses. In 1938, Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs made $8 million in just the first half—more than ten times the earnings of other films. Meanwhile, with this animation, the company paid overdue wages to its employees and recovered the losses it had sustained. An unusual event that changes everything is called a “tail event.” 40% of publicly listed companies in the U.S. stock market lose nearly all their market capitalization 10 years after going public. Business and investing, after all, are based on probabilities. No one knows what the “tail event” will be. Therefore, to succeed, you need to try small, steady, many times with little impact, even if you fail. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”
Expertise is not “to know only me,” but “to make understanding others to know with what only I know for.” It is not expertise if I cannot persuade others by overwhelming them with my things. The expertise that failed to convince and communicate is called “stubbornness”. “Collective intelligence” is the expertise that succeeds in persuasion and communication, and does not mean a stubbornness that enforces consensus. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”