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Showing posts with the label normal distribution

Just my thoughts #0584

The price of a stock reflects the current valuation of a company based on its anticipated future performance. If the future looks uncertain, the current price is likely to fall; if it appears promising, it will rise. In other words, the company’s outlook on the future is mirrored in the current stock price. Investing in stocks essentially means buying and selling future values while trading at present prices. However, the reason I can’t buy the stock now is that I’m afraid its price will drop in the future. Conversely, if I cannot sell the stock when the price decreases, I struggle to do so because the loss caused by the expectation that the stock might increase, or by the missed timing for the sale, is too significant; this can overwhelm me with fear. Thus, stock prices are most readily influenced by the weight of ‘fear rather than desire.’ Even though the current stock price reflects future value, it often happens that this future value is not trusted. When we say that time is money,...

Just my thoughts #0116

We often play ladder games when betting. If you want to win, you can choose the option as far as possible from the marked “tagger”. If the “tagger” is displayed on the middle option, the most likely chance of not getting caught is when selecting the option at both ends. If you have a tag on one end, you can avoid the tag by choosing the other side end option. This is because the probability of winning a ladder game follows the “normal distribution” model. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”