Walt Disney gained worldwide fame with the animated film ‘Steamboat Willie,’ but Disney’s first studio went bankrupt. By the mid-1930s, he had produced over 400 animations, most of which suffered heavy losses. In 1938, Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs made $8 million in just the first half—more than ten times the earnings of other films. Meanwhile, with this animation, the company paid overdue wages to its employees and recovered the losses it had sustained. An unusual event that changes everything is called a “tail event.” 40% of publicly listed companies in the U.S. stock market lose nearly all their market capitalization 10 years after going public. Business and investing, after all, are based on probabilities. No one knows what the “tail event” will be. Therefore, to succeed, you need to try small, steady, many times with little impact, even if you fail. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”
Paradoxically, one of the reasons for Rome’s demise was that it kept winning wars. Victories expanded the empire’s territory, and the risks increased proportionally. Men, primarily middle-class men, volunteered as soldiers; the larger the territory, the longer the wars lasted, and the longer it took for them to return home. The women who remained at home were forced to borrow labor and became indebted to the nobility. Eventually, the women were sold into slavery, and by the time the men returned, their families had disintegrated. People don’t betray because they’re evil, but because it increases their risk. If the territory you’re in grows, you might reconsider your loyalties to the organization. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”