The world of investing is full of uncertainty. Even if we understand the past, we cannot predict the future, and past patterns are not always reliable. To maintain stability and protect my interests in an uncertain world, I need to know my own limits for change. Based on these limits, I should develop small, regular response patterns. In other words, the key to overcoming uncertainty is my own consistency, guided by the thresholds I observe in the world around me. Small, steady behaviors and habits can help manage or minimize the impact of uncertainty. No one invests without expecting the asset’s value to increase over time. The issue is that no one can truly predict the future, and even correct predictions are mostly based on probability and luck. However, from a broader perspective, microscopic risks can be managed. For example, the macro principle “Every human dies” must be 100% true, even if individual behaviors are unpredictable. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”
Paradoxically, one of the reasons for Rome’s demise was that it kept winning wars. Victories expanded the empire’s territory, and the risks increased proportionally. Men, primarily middle-class men, volunteered as soldiers; the larger the territory, the longer the wars lasted, and the longer it took for them to return home. The women who remained at home were forced to borrow labor and became indebted to the nobility. Eventually, the women were sold into slavery, and by the time the men returned, their families had disintegrated. People don’t betray because they’re evil, but because it increases their risk. If the territory you’re in grows, you might reconsider your loyalties to the organization. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”