One of the most common misconceptions is that people mistake cause and effect as interchangeable. A cause is often seen as an effect, or an effect is mistaken for a cause. The most well-known phenomenon demonstrating this is the halo effect — a situation where specific characteristics of an object influence how we judge other traits. For example, you might like that person’s character because you like one of their qualities, not because you like the person as a whole. This misunderstanding is a common causal error. If you like someone, you tend to think everything about them is good; if you don’t like someone, you might overlook or dislike everything about them. It’s not that you dislike the person for one reason and like them for another—it’s simply how the human heart works. Gaining someone’s favor, therefore, can be an arduous and painful process. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”
We often play ladder games when betting. If you want to win, you can choose the option as far as possible from the marked “tagger”. If the “tagger” is displayed on the middle option, the most likely chance of not getting caught is when selecting the option at both ends. If you have a tag on one end, you can avoid the tag by choosing the other side end option. This is because the probability of winning a ladder game follows the “normal distribution” model. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”