The world of investing is full of uncertainty. Even if we understand the past, we cannot predict the future, and past patterns are not always reliable. To maintain stability and protect my interests in an uncertain world, I need to know my own limits for change. Based on these limits, I should develop small, regular response patterns. In other words, the key to overcoming uncertainty is my own consistency, guided by the thresholds I observe in the world around me. Small, steady behaviors and habits can help manage or minimize the impact of uncertainty. No one invests without expecting the asset’s value to increase over time. The issue is that no one can truly predict the future, and even correct predictions are mostly based on probability and luck. However, from a broader perspective, microscopic risks can be managed. For example, the macro principle “Every human dies” must be 100% true, even if individual behaviors are unpredictable. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”
In September 1999, NASA’s unmanned Mars climate probe “MCO” exploded in Mars’ orbit. Manufacturer Lockheed Martin set up the data unit as a “yard,” but NASA mistook it as a “meter.” The MCO entered the atmosphere of Mars 100 km below the original orbit and exploded in friction. Communication error had blown away $ 125 million. With this opportunity, NASA decided that the units used in space development were “meters”. A slip of the tongue in business doesn’t end just a mistake accidentally. It must undoubtedly damage the “cash flow”. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”