Walt Disney gained worldwide fame with the animated film ‘Steamboat Willie,’ but Disney’s first studio went bankrupt. By the mid-1930s, he had produced over 400 animations, most of which suffered heavy losses. In 1938, Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs made $8 million in just the first half—more than ten times the earnings of other films. Meanwhile, with this animation, the company paid overdue wages to its employees and recovered the losses it had sustained. An unusual event that changes everything is called a “tail event.” 40% of publicly listed companies in the U.S. stock market lose nearly all their market capitalization 10 years after going public. Business and investing, after all, are based on probabilities. No one knows what the “tail event” will be. Therefore, to succeed, you need to try small, steady, many times with little impact, even if you fail. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”
In September 1999, NASA’s unmanned Mars climate probe “MCO” exploded in Mars’ orbit. Manufacturer Lockheed Martin set up the data unit as a “yard,” but NASA mistook it as a “meter.” The MCO entered the atmosphere of Mars 100 km below the original orbit and exploded in friction. Communication error had blown away $ 125 million. With this opportunity, NASA decided that the units used in space development were “meters”. A slip of the tongue in business doesn’t end just a mistake accidentally. It must undoubtedly damage the “cash flow”. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”