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Just my thoughts #0820

Fact Check: Humans cannot honestly know the future. It only partially predicts the future within limited scenarios and conditions. The weather forecast is an example. When you look back at the past from the present, you can understand the situation relatively accurately, but you did not fully grasp what the event was like at that time. Later, we only justify the past. One instance of preparing for a probabilistically unstable future is to consider the statistic that lowering the speed limit on highways can reduce the accident rate. However, the most reliable prediction method is to assume the future is unknown and to act only after confirming the current situation. Fact-checking is crucial in business management and investing. Avoid hasty forecasts; instead, wait until you have verified the information before acting. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”

Just my thoughts #0084

A big supermarket can do business in the suburbs because of wheels. If someone asked me what is one of the greatest inventions in human history that civilization has ever developed, I would say "wheels." The automobile is also a wheel. Shopping carts are also wheels. Without wheels, how many people would go far and carry heavy loads? Mass distribution is possible because of wheels. To do bulk sales, you have to have a lot of inventory. That means you need a lot of storage space. It also means you need cheap real estate. The trivial circle, the wheel, is the key to solving all these constraints in one shot. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”

Just my thoughts #0044

Wine contains "polyphenols," which are antioxidants, but it also includes ethyl alcohol, which is a Class 1 carcinogen according to the World Health Organization. Wine sellers emphasize "polyphenols" for their benefit. Nutritional supplements, such as vitamins, are marketed by highlighting their benefits. The explanation is very appealing. But let's look at it this way. We'd laugh if the function of a car were redundantly described as "saving people from heart disease," "promoting tourism," or "robbing banks" instead of simply "moving people around quickly".  Beyond the idea of trying to sell something unreasonable with all sorts of health claims without knowing exactly what they are, there is the hidden deception of fooling others or being fooled by oneself, and greed. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”