The world of investing is full of uncertainty. Even if we understand the past, we cannot predict the future, and past patterns are not always reliable. To maintain stability and protect my interests in an uncertain world, I need to know my own limits for change. Based on these limits, I should develop small, regular response patterns. In other words, the key to overcoming uncertainty is my own consistency, guided by the thresholds I observe in the world around me. Small, steady behaviors and habits can help manage or minimize the impact of uncertainty. No one invests without expecting the asset’s value to increase over time. The issue is that no one can truly predict the future, and even correct predictions are mostly based on probability and luck. However, from a broader perspective, microscopic risks can be managed. For example, the macro principle “Every human dies” must be 100% true, even if individual behaviors are unpredictable. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”
Many people in our society invest in bonds . Perhaps you, reading this article, have invested in bonds at least once and are still investing now. Bank deposits are a form of bonds, just not labeled as ‘bonds.’ When you deposit your money in a bank, the money isn’t considered bank money. Interest is paid because the money isn’t withdrawn immediately. When you withdraw your deposited money, the bank must return the principal plus interest. This is essentially a bond. However, the only reason this differs from bonds as an investment asset is that these bank deposits are not traded on the market. If bank deposits were traded publicly, the interest rate would be evaluated in comparison with other deposits, even if the principal remains unchanged. Valuation reflects opportunity cost . This is the transaction value of bonds . When goods or assets are traded in the market, their value is re-evaluated. The core of value is comparison, and the tool for valuation is opportunity cost. That’s why C...