Walt Disney gained worldwide fame with the animated film ‘Steamboat Willie,’ but Disney’s first studio went bankrupt. By the mid-1930s, he had produced over 400 animations, most of which suffered heavy losses. In 1938, Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs made $8 million in just the first half—more than ten times the earnings of other films. Meanwhile, with this animation, the company paid overdue wages to its employees and recovered the losses it had sustained. An unusual event that changes everything is called a “tail event.” 40% of publicly listed companies in the U.S. stock market lose nearly all their market capitalization 10 years after going public. Business and investing, after all, are based on probabilities. No one knows what the “tail event” will be. Therefore, to succeed, you need to try small, steady, many times with little impact, even if you fail. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”
Many people in our society invest in bonds . Perhaps you, reading this article, have invested in bonds at least once and are still investing now. Bank deposits are a form of bonds, just not labeled as ‘bonds.’ When you deposit your money in a bank, the money isn’t considered bank money. Interest is paid because the money isn’t withdrawn immediately. When you withdraw your deposited money, the bank must return the principal plus interest. This is essentially a bond. However, the only reason this differs from bonds as an investment asset is that these bank deposits are not traded on the market. If bank deposits were traded publicly, the interest rate would be evaluated in comparison with other deposits, even if the principal remains unchanged. Valuation reflects opportunity cost . This is the transaction value of bonds . When goods or assets are traded in the market, their value is re-evaluated. The core of value is comparison, and the tool for valuation is opportunity cost. That’s why C...