Fact Check: Humans cannot honestly know the future. It only partially predicts the future within limited scenarios and conditions. The weather forecast is an example. When you look back at the past from the present, you can understand the situation relatively accurately, but you did not fully grasp what the event was like at that time. Later, we only justify the past. One instance of preparing for a probabilistically unstable future is to consider the statistic that lowering the speed limit on highways can reduce the accident rate. However, the most reliable prediction method is to assume the future is unknown and to act only after confirming the current situation. Fact-checking is crucial in business management and investing. Avoid hasty forecasts; instead, wait until you have verified the information before acting. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”
In 2019, the coffee shop franchise Banapresso had 47 branches in Seoul, 35 of which were concentrated in the Gangnam and Seocho districts. There were even other Banapresso stores within 200 meters of each other. It was denser than Starbucks. 100% of orders were placed through kiosks and mobile apps. The elders thought it would be hard to place an unattended order, but when they tried it, they were impressed with how seamlessly they were connected to the register. An Americano costs KRW 1,500 (about USD 1.27). There was only one employee. Everything was ordered at the touch of a button and the coffee was served within 40 seconds. All the bread was made at a nearby headquarters and distributed in batches. Banapresso was the antithesis of a traditional coffee franchise. Its parent company is an IT company that operates a ride-hailing app. The same business can be completely transformed into a different business model, due to the interpretation and context. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”