Walt Disney gained worldwide fame with the animated film ‘Steamboat Willie,’ but Disney’s first studio went bankrupt. By the mid-1930s, he had produced over 400 animations, most of which suffered heavy losses. In 1938, Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs made $8 million in just the first half—more than ten times the earnings of other films. Meanwhile, with this animation, the company paid overdue wages to its employees and recovered the losses it had sustained. An unusual event that changes everything is called a “tail event.” 40% of publicly listed companies in the U.S. stock market lose nearly all their market capitalization 10 years after going public. Business and investing, after all, are based on probabilities. No one knows what the “tail event” will be. Therefore, to succeed, you need to try small, steady, many times with little impact, even if you fail. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”
In 2019, the coffee shop franchise Banapresso had 47 branches in Seoul, 35 of which were concentrated in the Gangnam and Seocho districts. There were even other Banapresso stores within 200 meters of each other. It was denser than Starbucks. 100% of orders were placed through kiosks and mobile apps. The elders thought it would be hard to place an unattended order, but when they tried it, they were impressed with how seamlessly they were connected to the register. An Americano costs KRW 1,500 (about USD 1.27). There was only one employee. Everything was ordered at the touch of a button and the coffee was served within 40 seconds. All the bread was made at a nearby headquarters and distributed in batches. Banapresso was the antithesis of a traditional coffee franchise. Its parent company is an IT company that operates a ride-hailing app. The same business can be completely transformed into a different business model, due to the interpretation and context. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”