The world of investing is full of uncertainty. Even if we understand the past, we cannot predict the future, and past patterns are not always reliable. To maintain stability and protect my interests in an uncertain world, I need to know my own limits for change. Based on these limits, I should develop small, regular response patterns. In other words, the key to overcoming uncertainty is my own consistency, guided by the thresholds I observe in the world around me. Small, steady behaviors and habits can help manage or minimize the impact of uncertainty. No one invests without expecting the asset’s value to increase over time. The issue is that no one can truly predict the future, and even correct predictions are mostly based on probability and luck. However, from a broader perspective, microscopic risks can be managed. For example, the macro principle “Every human dies” must be 100% true, even if individual behaviors are unpredictable. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”
In 2019, the coffee shop franchise Banapresso had 47 branches in Seoul, 35 of which were concentrated in the Gangnam and Seocho districts. There were even other Banapresso stores within 200 meters of each other. It was denser than Starbucks. 100% of orders were placed through kiosks and mobile apps. The elders thought it would be hard to place an unattended order, but when they tried it, they were impressed with how seamlessly they were connected to the register. An Americano costs KRW 1,500 (about USD 1.27). There was only one employee. Everything was ordered at the touch of a button and the coffee was served within 40 seconds. All the bread was made at a nearby headquarters and distributed in batches. Banapresso was the antithesis of a traditional coffee franchise. Its parent company is an IT company that operates a ride-hailing app. The same business can be completely transformed into a different business model, due to the interpretation and context. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”