When investing in a market where asset trading is ongoing, persistent, and prices are constantly fluctuating, the most important factor is the perception and attitude toward “time.” Here, time refers to a defined “period,” a concept that encompasses the “past,” “present,” and “future.” Knowing the future can make us wealthy. All we know is the “past,” but in reality, even the past is often not fully understood. That is, we must admit we lack complete knowledge about the past, present, or future. In this state, we must conduct business and invest. The attitude toward business and investing is to focus on judging the “trend” by applying the concepts of differential and integral calculus simultaneously. Differential weather (e.g., morning and afternoon of a day) is easy to predict, but long-term future weather cannot be forecasted even by supercomputers. However, by accumulating knowledge of the past and analyzing it integrally, it is possible to predict the trend of the distant future to...
The Anchoring Heuristic In 1974, Tversky and Kahneman divided two groups and asked one group to calculate the value of "8x7x6x5x4x3x2x1" and the other group to answer the question "1x2x3x4x5x6x7x8" immediately. The average calculation result of the first group was 2,250, and that of the second group was 512. For both groups, the original answer is 40,320, which is the same. Although they multiplied by the same number, the first group multiplied by the order of the larger number, resulting in a higher baseline adjustment, while the second group did the opposite. When we judge and make decisions, the reference point determines the extent and direction of our illusion. When we live, we have to deal with these fallible human beings. - Joseph's "just my thoughts"