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Showing posts with the label Kahneman

Just my thoughts #0715

Maintaining even a small annual profit is advantageous in investing. Survival remains the most critical factor in business. People have sought the secret to Warren Buffett’s success, which is the power of compounding, but they overlook the real key: he has invested consistently for 75 years without pause. You can indeed succeed in your business endeavors through sheer survival; conversely, you cannot survive solely because of your success. Survival is only achievable if you have the strength to keep going, even with minimal returns. To do this, you must do what you love. Invest in stocks you like, and continue investing even if it is volatile. Next, you need to secure a “margin of safety.” Even a small margin ratio is crucial because a business can’t survive without margins. Frugal spending, flexible thinking, loose schedules—anything that helps during tough times—can all contribute to building a margin of safety. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”

Just my thoughts #0039

The Anchoring Heuristic In 1974, Tversky and Kahneman divided two groups and asked one group to calculate the value of "8x7x6x5x4x3x2x1" and the other group to answer the question "1x2x3x4x5x6x7x8" immediately. The average calculation result of the first group was 2,250, and that of the second group was 512. For both groups, the original answer is 40,320, which is the same. Although they multiplied by the same number, the first group multiplied by the order of the larger number, resulting in a higher baseline adjustment, while the second group did the opposite. When we judge and make decisions, the reference point determines the extent and direction of our illusion. When we live, we have to deal with these fallible human beings. - Joseph's "just my thoughts"