Weather forecasters on the news often feature well-dressed meteorologists who diligently explain the weather using various meteorological terms. But if the forecasts were always accurate, there would be no need for such lengthy explanations. People wouldn’t complain if it were simply raining or not, if the temperature was a few degrees, and if the humidity was comfortable or uncomfortable. However, since there’s a chance the forecast could be wrong, they try to explain it thoroughly to ask for people’s understanding. Do you see why simplicity is great? Simplicity is great because no one can simplify it haphazardly. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”
The Anchoring Heuristic In 1974, Tversky and Kahneman divided two groups and asked one group to calculate the value of "8x7x6x5x4x3x2x1" and the other group to answer the question "1x2x3x4x5x6x7x8" immediately. The average calculation result of the first group was 2,250, and that of the second group was 512. For both groups, the original answer is 40,320, which is the same. Although they multiplied by the same number, the first group multiplied by the order of the larger number, resulting in a higher baseline adjustment, while the second group did the opposite. When we judge and make decisions, the reference point determines the extent and direction of our illusion. When we live, we have to deal with these fallible human beings. - Joseph's "just my thoughts"