The Paradox of Development. In 2008, Google created a system to predict flu outbreaks in advance. Initially, the tool accurately forecasted when and where the flu might occur. However, in 2013, a new feature was added that suggested related search terms. As a result, searchers began inputting their queries less carefully, which led to a decline in the system’s predictive performance. Although improvements have been made since then, this example illustrates how enhancements in one area can cause failures in another. Therefore, it seems like we gain by losing, and often lose by gaining. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”
The Anchoring Heuristic In 1974, Tversky and Kahneman divided two groups and asked one group to calculate the value of "8x7x6x5x4x3x2x1" and the other group to answer the question "1x2x3x4x5x6x7x8" immediately. The average calculation result of the first group was 2,250, and that of the second group was 512. For both groups, the original answer is 40,320, which is the same. Although they multiplied by the same number, the first group multiplied by the order of the larger number, resulting in a higher baseline adjustment, while the second group did the opposite. When we judge and make decisions, the reference point determines the extent and direction of our illusion. When we live, we have to deal with these fallible human beings. - Joseph's "just my thoughts"