At Berkshire Hathaway’s 2013 shareholders’ meeting, Warren Buffett said, “I’ve owned 400 to 500 companies’ stocks in my lifetime, but only about 10 of them made the most money.” His lifelong friend and investment partner, Charlie Munger, added, “With the exception of some of Berkshire Hathaway’s best investment practices, long-term performance is near-average.” Many people know Warren Buffett’s return on investment better than his mistakes or failures. It’s because of those 10 companies that he succeeded in investing. If there is a positive, there must be a negative. It’s better to prepare a realistic alternative in case you fail than to try to avoid failing. Humans are probabilistic beings. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”
The Anchoring Heuristic In 1974, Tversky and Kahneman divided two groups and asked one group to calculate the value of "8x7x6x5x4x3x2x1" and the other group to answer the question "1x2x3x4x5x6x7x8" immediately. The average calculation result of the first group was 2,250, and that of the second group was 512. For both groups, the original answer is 40,320, which is the same. Although they multiplied by the same number, the first group multiplied by the order of the larger number, resulting in a higher baseline adjustment, while the second group did the opposite. When we judge and make decisions, the reference point determines the extent and direction of our illusion. When we live, we have to deal with these fallible human beings. - Joseph's "just my thoughts"