Fact Check: Humans cannot honestly know the future. It only partially predicts the future within limited scenarios and conditions. The weather forecast is an example. When you look back at the past from the present, you can understand the situation relatively accurately, but you did not fully grasp what the event was like at that time. Later, we only justify the past. One instance of preparing for a probabilistically unstable future is to consider the statistic that lowering the speed limit on highways can reduce the accident rate. However, the most reliable prediction method is to assume the future is unknown and to act only after confirming the current situation. Fact-checking is crucial in business management and investing. Avoid hasty forecasts; instead, wait until you have verified the information before acting. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”
Cognitive Structure: Humans naturally avoid complicated or confusing interfaces. If all headlines in a newspaper are the same size as the body text, they won’t seem inviting to read. The human brain is built to operate efficiently. However, human cognitive abilities often don’t reach their full potential. Any interface that goes against this instinct is likely to fail. No one enjoys taking tests every day, right? To increase sales in an online shopping mall, it’s important to provide an interface that requires minimal mental effort from consumers. To protect the environment, instead of setting “spoons or forks” as the default delivery option in a food delivery app, offering a choice to select separately can help reduce waste. To promote positive consumer behavior, create a comfortable environment; to discourage negative behavior, make the process complex and frustrating. - Joseph’s “just my thoughts”